Bidenomics: What to expect
Trump tries to scare voters with a bogeyman Biden — a captive of left-wing radicals who will turn America socialist, open borders, unleash violence, destroy suburbs, and more. All utterly idiotic. Only fools fall for it.
Biden’s always been determinedly centrist, a political moderate, a pragmatist, deeply respecting the hard-working middle class. In the primaries he decisively crushed his party’s leftist minority. True, he afterward created a task force to flatter them by crafting a diluted version of their policies. He’s diluted it further in his own policy pronouncements. As president he’ll be his own man. And he’ll have to work through a Congress where moderates likewise dominate among Democrats.
The stock market has risen even as a Biden presidency grows likelier. Wall Street obviously doesn’t foresee an anti-capitalist socialist administration.
The Economist has presented a thorough analysis of what “Bidenomics” probably portends. That pro-market publication likewise fears no radicalism. If anything, it says, Biden may be insufficiently daring.
Job One will be the covid-induced economic crisis, that’s hit the less affluent worst, and ravaged state and local government budgets. Trump’s insane refusal to negotiate anything before the election will give Biden full responsibility. This should mean a major, costly recovery initiative, particularly helping small business, largely left out so far. Infrastructure will be a key part, with a big green tinge.
Rock-bottom interest rates make financing this fairly painless. Though eventually we must get to grips with our huge ongoing taxing/spending imbalance. The Economist isn’t betting on Biden biting that bullet.
He should, however, address the imbalance within the tax structure, worsened by Trump’s inexcusable giveaway to the richest. People like me must pay a fairer share. We should also see a long-overdue Medicare-like government health insurance option for people wanting it. Biden will also likely tackle college costs and student debt, though here again, the most radical “free-for-all” ideas will be non-starters, with help instead targeted to those most in need.
On trade, it’s unfortunate that Biden’s free trade instincts probably can’t overcome the self-harming protectionism that now infects both parties. So Trump’s stupid tariffs will be hard to unwind.
Further, Biden seems stuck in a retro mindset emphasizing manufacturing’s economic role.
This vain dream of “bringing back American manufacturing jobs” has bedeviled us for decades. We actually manufacture as much as ever, but do it with ever less labor, thanks to technological advances. That’s a good thing. Our future prosperity does not lie with manufacturing but with the technology that pervades it and every other aspect of modern life.
America’s economy is meanwhile becoming sclerotic. A key reason corporate profits (and stocks) are strong is decreasing competition. Small business creation was lagging even before the pandemic crippled that sector. The commanding position of the tech giants is obvious. The Economist hopes Biden will revitalize antitrust enforcement and otherwise act to open up the economy to make it more competitive.
But the great contrast with Trump will be restoration of the ideals of public service and conduct that he so traduces. Biden will act conscientiously and responsibly, getting and heeding good advice rather than disdaining it, working within America’s time-tested institutions rather than trying to blow them up. He will govern for all Americans, not just a minority of diehard fans. Honoring our democratic traditions. A return to sanity, rebuilding what Trump has knocked down.
It’s all crystallized by Trump’s sickening attack on the credibility of our election, encouraging supporters to disrupt it based on ballot fraud lies, so he can overturn the results. Making America into a banana republic.
That’s what’s really at stake in this election. First, save the country. Then worry about economic policy.